Why Do Civil Wars Happen?

A civil war is defined as a war between different groups or sections of a society belonging to the same nation. There are other definitions too. James Fearon of the Standard University defines a civil war as “a violent conflict within a country fought by organized groups that aim to take power at the center or in a region or to change government polices.” They are quite difficult to start because people have to be really angry to take this kind of drastic step.

Causes:
The World Bank carried out a study in the 2000s and it came up with the following results. They are also known as the Collier-Hoeffler model. Here are the bank’s findings:

(1) Finance:
If there are a lot of primary commodities that make up the national exports (the threshold is 32%), there is a 22% chance that there would be a civil-war in the next five years. It was also found that high dependence on oil as an export product also increases the risk of a civil war.

The study found the risk also increases when there are a lot of foreign nationals financing a movement in a country, and, if the diaspora is powerful, the risk could increase by ten times.
Low per capita income fuels discontent, prompting armed rebellion. And if there is a significant difference between the income levels of the rich and the poor (economic inequality), the occurrence of a civil war becomes more likely.

(2) Education:
The study found that young males are less likely to participate in any rebel movement if they are educated, have a decent salary and they think they would prosper in the future. The statistics were: secondary school enrollment of 10% reduces the risk of a civil war by 3%.

(3) Terrain:
The chances of a civil war in a country with rugged terrain are more because it becomes difficult for the security forces to control rebel movements, should they arise. Afghanistan is an excellent example. Because of its rugged terrain it provides sanctuaries for the rebels and thus the country is famous as the graveyard of empires.

(4) Massive Discontent:
Grievance is a major factor and the main reasons include: ethnic or religious dominance of a particular group in all the important affairs. There are examples to be found in different African nations where the dam of massive discontent burst in 1994 and there were major clashes between Huties and Tutsus, the countries main ethnic groups. It was found that the minority is more likely to rebel if they are dominated.

However, the study also found that the net result of ethnic and religious frictions, in many cases, mitigated the net effect. For example, a person from an ethnic group A may belong to a religious group B, thus it would become difficult for him/her to take sides.

(5) Population size and time:
The increase in population also increases the risk of a civil war.

If the last time, when the country confronted a civil war or a disaster of a national scale, goes long back in time; the chances are that people would have forgotten the incident, increasing the risk of a civil war.

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